AFC Ajax vs. AZ: O/U 3.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 57¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$61.05

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 57.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,811

Combined PnL-$330.83

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,912

Combined PnL+$269.79

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 54.6¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$280.81	53% 1136-994 (2130)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$70.36	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 45¢	$900	$980	+$80	53% 5640-4979 (10619)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44¢	$731.71	$740.07	+$73.46	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Underavg 56¢	$493.79	$449.7	-$44.09	55% 1747-1441 (3188)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 57¢	$318	$302	-$16	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$228	$204	-$24
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$90	$98	+$8
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 43¢	$191.91	$218.69	+$26.78	32% 731-1558 (2289)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 44.3¢	$170.11	$181.44	+$11.33	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$87.39	$95.16	+$7.77	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 55¢	$81.53	$75.6	-$5.93	39% 426-672 (1098)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.88	+$0.09	54% 4896-4121 (9017)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$4,249.34

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$280.81

Record

53%

1136-994 (2130)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,033.35

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$70.36

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$900

Value

$980

PnL

+$80

Record

53%

5640-4979 (10619)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$731.71

Value

$740.07

PnL

+$73.46

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Under

Invested

$493.79

Value

$449.7

PnL

-$44.09

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$318

Value

$302

PnL

-$16

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Both legs:

Under$22857¢-$24

Over$9045¢+$8

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$191.91

Value

$218.69

PnL

+$26.78

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$170.11

Value

$181.44

PnL

+$11.33

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.39

Value

$95.16

PnL

+$7.77

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$81.53

Value

$75.6

PnL

-$5.93

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.