AFC Ajax vs. AZ: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 86¢ · $638 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$637.56
$7.93
87.6¢ → 85.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Socialista | Overavg 88¢ | $264 | $261 | -$1.5 | 63% 2700-1603 (4303) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 87¢ | $174 | $171 | +$1 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $82.32 | $81.38 | -$0.47 | 65% 1721-936 (2657) |
 fxwd12345CTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $50 | $55.77 | +$5.77 | 69% 1507-687 (2194) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $33.09 | $36.78 | +$3.69 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $32.19 | $31.63 | -$0.55 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
SocialistaInvested
$264
Value
$261
PnL
-$1.5
Record
63%
2700-1603 (4303)
0xheavy888Invested
$174
Value
$171
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$82.32
Value
$81.38
PnL
-$0.47
Record
65%
1721-936 (2657)
fxwd12345CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$55.77
PnL
+$5.77
Record
69%
1507-687 (2194)
Invested
$33.09
Value
$36.78
PnL
+$3.69
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$32.19
Value
$31.63
PnL
-$0.55
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.