Will AZ win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$2.3K
-$143.35
75.1¢ → 91.5¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 75¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$8.38 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 75¢ | $465.49 | $552.64 | +$94.85 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $485.86 | $310.35 | -$175.51 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $50.06 | $50.05 | -$0 | 61% 13722-8594 (22316) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $85.62 | $34.2 | -$51.42 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $36.34 | $33.18 | -$3.16 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $21.24 | $21.71 | +$0.48 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $18.63 | $19.67 | +$1.04 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $27.27 | $9.27 | -$18 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
Invested
$1,254.19
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$8.38
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
VeryLucky888Invested
$465.49
Value
$552.64
PnL
+$94.85
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$485.86
Value
$310.35
PnL
-$175.51
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$50.06
Value
$50.05
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
13722-8594 (22316)
Invested
$85.62
Value
$34.2
PnL
-$51.42
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$36.34
Value
$33.18
PnL
-$3.16
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
RN1<$100Invested
$21.24
Value
$21.71
PnL
+$0.48
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$18.63
Value
$19.67
PnL
+$1.04
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
Invested
$27.27
Value
$9.27
PnL
-$18
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.