Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-10-31?

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (94%) · Yes at 52¢ · $54K held · ends Oct 31

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 94%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.6K

Combined PnL

-$113.66

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$45.7K

Total Shares86,929

Combined PnL-$188.66

No1 trader

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares15,000

Combined PnL+$75

Yes — 94%No — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 52.5¢	$13.8K	$13.6K	-$272.48	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
NooseracCTR	Noavg 48¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$75	52% 5778-5367 (11145)
ZH zhuz632	Yesavg 51.6¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$18.25	51% 244-237 (481)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 51.7¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$43.58	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
RN1	Yesavg 52.5¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$104.8	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Yesavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$30	47% 2521-2820 (5341)
sapupu	Yesavg 52¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$192.31	58% 72-52 (124)
KK kkpay19888	Yesavg 51¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$22.89	51% 535-517 (1052)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 51.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$3.62	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
FF ff3364	Yesavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	50% 801-804 (1605)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 51.7¢	$874.89	$856.81	-$3.28	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$588	$606	+$18	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.5¢	$412	$412	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$176	$194	+$18
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 54.5¢	$629.16	$594.78	-$34.39	65% 1721-936 (2657)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 51¢	$584.97	$590.71	+$5.74	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439	Yesavg 51¢	$510	$515	+$5	49% 352-368 (720)
HRTrading	Yesavg 52¢	$264.29	$261.75	-$2.54	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 51.9¢	$164.53	$165.65	+$1.12	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$7.65	$7.73	+$0.08	49% 12681-13099 (25780)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$13,838.09

Value

$13.6K

PnL

-$272.48

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

NooseracCTR

Invested

$7,199.96

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$75

Record

52%

5778-5367 (11145)

zhuz632

Yes

Invested

$6,748.32

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$18.25

Record

51%

244-237 (481)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$5,951.31

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$43.58

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$5,749.2

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$104.8

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Yes

Invested

$3,120

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

47%

2521-2820 (5341)

sapupu

Yes

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$192.31

Record

58%

72-52 (124)

kkpay19888

Yes

Invested

$2,334.58

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$22.89

Record

51%

535-517 (1052)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$1,653.81

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$3.62

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

ff3364

Yes

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

801-804 (1605)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$874.89

Value

$856.81

PnL

-$3.28

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$588

Value

$606

PnL

+$18

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Both legs:

Invested

$629.16

Value

$594.78

PnL

-$34.39

Record

65%

1721-936 (2657)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$584.97

Value

$590.71

PnL

+$5.74

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439

Yes

Invested

$510

Value

$515

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

352-368 (720)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$264.29

Value

$261.75

PnL

-$2.54

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$164.53

Value

$165.65

PnL

+$1.12

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.