Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 5.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 95¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$6.7K
-$10.1
91.8¢ → 95¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 92.9¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$23.23 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 89.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$37.16 | 50% 33443-33004 (66447) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 6.6¢ | $281.83 | $213.61 | -$68.22 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $79.47 | $80.79 | +$1.32 | 55% 2916-2352 (5268) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $42.32 | $42.09 | -$0.23 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $30.82 | $30.65 | -$0.17 | 49% 1166-1197 (2363) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 90.4¢ | $23.61 | $24.15 | +$0.54 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.4¢ | $13.44 | $12.16 | -$1.28 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $10.78 | $8.33 | -$2.45 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
Invested
$4,187.64
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$23.23
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$2,018.4
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$37.16
Record
50%
33443-33004 (66447)
Invested
$281.83
Value
$213.61
PnL
-$68.22
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Invested
$79.47
Value
$80.79
PnL
+$1.32
Record
55%
2916-2352 (5268)
Invested
$42.32
Value
$42.09
PnL
-$0.23
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$30.82
Value
$30.65
PnL
-$0.17
Record
49%
1166-1197 (2363)
Invested
$23.61
Value
$24.15
PnL
+$0.54
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$12.16
PnL
-$1.28
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$8.33
PnL
-$2.45
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.