Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 81¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 31

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

$522.49

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 81¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares20,002

Combined PnL+$522.49

Over1 trader

Total Value$33.44

Total Shares176

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 81.3¢	$6.7K	$7.0K	+$308.23	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 82.3¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$28.95	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 83¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$86.67	66% 203-106 (309)
RN1	Underavg 74¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$241.87	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
latvian.demon	Underavg 75¢	$375	$405	+$30	54% 702-590 (1292)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 19.3¢	$196.16	$194.96	-$1.2	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.3¢	$145	$142.5	-$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 79¢	$51.16	$52.46	+$1.3
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$33.44	$33.44	+$0	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 80.8¢	$19.74	$19.8	+$0.06	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 81¢	$4.26	$4.26	-$0	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 80¢	$4	$4.05	+$0.05	50% 33443-33004 (66447)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$6,738.09

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$308.23

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$4,163.96

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$28.95

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$3,596.97

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$86.67

Record

66%

203-106 (309)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,442.74

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$241.87

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$375

Value

$405

PnL

+$30

Record

54%

702-590 (1292)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$196.16

Value

$194.96

PnL

-$1.2

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

Both legs:

Invested

$33.44

Value

$33.44

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$19.74

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.