Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 41¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 31

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

-$56.99

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 41¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares10,114

Combined PnL-$179.55

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,837

Combined PnL+$122.55

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 41.1¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$5.64	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.1¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$131.04
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$125.4
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$215.96	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$129.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 40¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$86.31
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 44.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$6.78	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.4¢	$991.99	$961.54	-$30.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$485.32	$522.55	+$37.23
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$169.26	53% 1134-991 (2125)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
ComingBack	Overavg 57¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
HONGKONGPEACHCTR	Underavg 30¢	$883.01	$868.29	-$14.72	50% 320-324 (644)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 60.4¢	$671.73	$837.96	+$166.23	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Underavg 37.7¢	$664.09	$689.88	+$25.79	62% 13712-8576 (22288)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.7¢	$512.1	$549.62	+$37.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.5¢	$151.99	$140.26	-$11.73
AN Anon455	Overavg 61.8¢	$617.5	$570	-$47.5	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	Overavg 56.6¢	$543.05	$546.64	+$3.59	68% 1460-697 (2157)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 41¢	$299.14	$299.06	-$0.08	58% 1027-753 (1780)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 42.2¢	$119.18	$121.42	+$2.24	54% 4890-4116 (9006)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 41.3¢	$99.84	$103.85	+$4.01	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
TO torta.techCTR	Underavg 43¢	$102.77	$102.77	+$0	63% 8135-4874 (13009)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 42.7¢	$69.72	$70.03	+$0.32	53% 15968-14143 (30111)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 57¢	$11.65	$12.05	+$0.41	51% 3418-3343 (6761)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 40.6¢	$10.26	$8.21	-$2.05	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 59¢	$5.07	$4.9	-$0.17	53% 2185-1930 (4115)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.15	+$0	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,487.08

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$5.64

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Both legs:

Under$3,444.7741.1¢-$131.04

Over$2,042.3157¢+$125.4

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,236.36

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$215.96

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

Both legs:

Over$1,098.6651¢+$129.65

Under$1,137.740¢+$86.31

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,477.31

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.78

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

Both legs:

Under$991.9944.4¢-$30.46

Over$485.3252.9¢+$37.23

rabbitfoot1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,429.42

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$169.26

Record

53%

1134-991 (2125)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$1,105.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

HONGKONGPEACHCTR

Under

Invested

$883.01

Value

$868.29

PnL

-$14.72

Record

50%

320-324 (644)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$671.73

Value

$837.96

PnL

+$166.23

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Under

Invested

$664.09

Value

$689.88

PnL

+$25.79

Record

62%

13712-8576 (22288)

Both legs:

Under$512.137.7¢+$37.52

Over$151.9964.5¢-$11.73

Anon455

Over

Invested

$617.5

Value

$570

PnL

-$47.5

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

Over

Invested

$543.05

Value

$546.64

PnL

+$3.59

Record

68%

1460-697 (2157)

MinevaJCTR

Under

Invested

$299.14

Value

$299.06

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$119.18

Value

$121.42

PnL

+$2.24

Record

54%

4890-4116 (9006)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$99.84

Value

$103.85

PnL

+$4.01

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

torta.techCTR

Under

Invested

$102.77

Value

$102.77

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

8135-4874 (13009)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.72

Value

$70.03

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$11.65

Value

$12.05

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

3418-3343 (6761)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.26

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$2.05

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

2185-1930 (4115)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.