Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 94¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$780.54

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 93.5¢

+15% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares12,695

Combined PnL-$160.37

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares9,929

Combined PnL+$940.92

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 77¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$45.4	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
RN1	Noavg 93¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$246.63	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 77¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$35.61	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$919.33	$1.9K	+$931.75	49% 19187-19579 (38766)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Noavg 92¢	$1.1K	$897.39	-$202.89	62% 13712-8576 (22288)
└ No leg	Noavg 92¢	$674.66	$678.15	+$3.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.6¢	$425.62	$219.24	-$206.38
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$760.94	$534.38	-$226.56	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
└ No leg	Noavg 77¢	$286.44	$347.82	+$61.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.5¢	$474.5	$186.56	-$287.94
ComingBack	Noavg 77¢	$500	$506.49	+$6.49	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89.9¢	$330.2	$342.22	+$12.02	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 85.2¢	$175.99	$161.13	-$14.86	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
HRTrading	Noavg 92.1¢	$116.06	$116.55	+$0.49	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
0010001000001100CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$82.66	$82.66	-$0	65% 1360-732 (2092)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 77¢	$73.92	$74.88	+$0.96	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 92¢	$62.1	$62.44	+$0.34	57% 1733-1295 (3028)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 76¢	$36.25	$37.21	+$0.95	53% 2185-1930 (4115)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$21.62	$25.32	+$3.7	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$44.91	$24.06	-$20.85	59% 30487-21198 (51685)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$23.1	-$0.45	48% 2404-2633 (5037)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$10.4	$22.88	+$12.48	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$238.36	$19.84	+$10.8	58% 1027-753 (1780)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$12.79	$15.83	+$3.04	51% 6015-5713 (11728)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 87¢	$6.73	$6.03	-$0.7	57% 2168-1605 (3773)

Anon455

Invested

$3,535.3

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$45.4

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

RN1

Invested

$3,221.14

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$246.63

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,741.87

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$35.61

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$919.33

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$931.75

Record

49%

19187-19579 (38766)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Invested

$1,100.28

Value

$897.39

PnL

-$202.89

Record

62%

13712-8576 (22288)

Both legs:

No$674.6692¢+$3.49

Yes$425.6214.6¢-$206.38

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$760.94

Value

$534.38

PnL

-$226.56

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Both legs:

No$286.4477¢+$61.38

Yes$474.516.5¢-$287.94

ComingBack

Invested

$500

Value

$506.49

PnL

+$6.49

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$330.2

Value

$342.22

PnL

+$12.02

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$175.99

Value

$161.13

PnL

-$14.86

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

HRTrading

Invested

$116.06

Value

$116.55

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

0010001000001100CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.66

Value

$82.66

PnL

-$0

Record

65%

1360-732 (2092)

foooool<$100

Invested

$73.92

Value

$74.88

PnL

+$0.96

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$62.1

Value

$62.44

PnL

+$0.34

Record

57%

1733-1295 (3028)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$36.25

Value

$37.21

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

2185-1930 (4115)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.62

Value

$25.32

PnL

+$3.7

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.91

Value

$24.06

PnL

-$20.85

Record

59%

30487-21198 (51685)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$12.48

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$238.36

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$10.8

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.79

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$3.04

Record

51%

6015-5713 (11728)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.7

Record

57%

2168-1605 (3773)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.