Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 84¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
1 arb excluded
$7.0K
$42.63
83¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 p1252 | Noavg 83¢ | $5.7K | $5.7K | +$34.16 | 54% 102-88 (190) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $459.53 | $471.26 | +$11.73 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $260.12 | $260.12 | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17¢ | $199.41 | $211.14 | +$11.73 | |
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $425 | $450 | +$25 | 47% 92-103 (195) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $291 | $282.44 | -$8.56 | 50% 24855-24561 (49416) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $101.15 | $104.38 | -$7.81 | 46% 7970-9410 (17380) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $8.33 | $8.09 | -$0.24 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $5.74 | $5.74 | +$0.04 | 52% 3999-3641 (7640) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $0.9 | +$0.05 | 47% 2262-2550 (4812) |
p1252Invested
$5,671.09
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$34.16
Record
54%
102-88 (190)
Invested
$459.53
Value
$471.26
PnL
+$11.73
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Both legs:
Invested
$425
Value
$450
PnL
+$25
Record
47%
92-103 (195)
Invested
$291
Value
$282.44
PnL
-$8.56
Record
50%
24855-24561 (49416)
Invested
$101.15
Value
$104.38
PnL
-$7.81
Record
46%
7970-9410 (17380)
Invested
$8.33
Value
$8.09
PnL
-$0.24
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.74
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
3999-3641 (7640)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2262-2550 (4812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.