Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (84%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 17¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 14%
$4.3K
-$131.6
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP SparYelCTR | Underavg 47.1¢ | $6.5K | $2.7K | -$331.46 | 47% 21-24 (45) |
 poshposh | Overavg 52¢ | $714.82 | $783.55 | +$68.73 | 59% 10226-7214 (17440) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 58.4¢ | $224.71 | $315.7 | +$90.99 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Overavg 53¢ | $159 | $171 | +$12 | 50% 2517-2500 (5017) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 52.6¢ | $145.59 | $157.89 | +$12.3 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $62 | $69 | +$7 | 59% 30487-21198 (51685) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 55.6¢ | $17.02 | $25.86 | +$8.84 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
Invested
$6,523.25
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$331.46
Record
47%
21-24 (45)
poshposhInvested
$714.82
Value
$783.55
PnL
+$68.73
Record
59%
10226-7214 (17440)
Invested
$224.71
Value
$315.7
PnL
+$90.99
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$159
Value
$171
PnL
+$12
Record
50%
2517-2500 (5017)
Invested
$145.59
Value
$157.89
PnL
+$12.3
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$62
Value
$69
PnL
+$7
Record
59%
30487-21198 (51685)
Invested
$17.02
Value
$25.86
PnL
+$8.84
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.