Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$2.1K
$12.53
75.3¢ → 91¢
+21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 75.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$1.44 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 75¢ | $1.1K | $663.79 | +$13.14 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 76¢ | $211.38 | $212.77 | +$1.39 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $92.36 | $90.06 | +$0.6 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $50.64 | $49.59 | -$1.06 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $10.96 | $10.12 | -$0.22 | 49% 6379-6554 (12933) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $7.6 | $7.5 | -$0.1 | 48% 7449-7982 (15431) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 76¢ | $153.44 | $4.9 | +$0.22 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
Invested
$1,019.29
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$1.44
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$1,081.02
Value
$663.79
PnL
+$13.14
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$211.38
Value
$212.77
PnL
+$1.39
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$92.36
Value
$90.06
PnL
+$0.6
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$50.64
Value
$49.59
PnL
-$1.06
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$10.96
Value
$10.12
PnL
-$0.22
Record
49%
6379-6554 (12933)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
7449-7982 (15431)
Invested
$153.44
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.22
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.