Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$27.15

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 76.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,019

Combined PnL+$26.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$140.94

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$0.45

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 75.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$22.02	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$773.83	$789.64	+$15.81	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$579.84	$591.44	+$11.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$193.99	$198.2	+$4.22
VE Venusian	Noavg 76¢	$211.38	$212.77	+$1.39	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 76¢	$353.15	$178.95	+$2.56	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$92.36	$90.06	+$0.6	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$68.01	$69.49	+$1.48	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$50.64	$49.59	-$1.06	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76¢	$34.44	$34.66	+$0.23	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$11.5	$11.75	+$0.25	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$10.96	$10.12	-$0.22	49% 6379-6554 (12933)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$7.5	-$0.1	48% 7449-7982 (15431)

NM-P

Invested

$1,238.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.02

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$773.83

Value

$789.64

PnL

+$15.81

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Both legs:

No$579.8475¢+$11.6

Yes$193.9923¢+$4.22

Venusian

Invested

$211.38

Value

$212.77

PnL

+$1.39

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

38791873984189

Invested

$353.15

Value

$178.95

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$92.36

Value

$90.06

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.01

Value

$69.49

PnL

+$1.48

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.64

Value

$49.59

PnL

-$1.06

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.44

Value

$34.66

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.96

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

6379-6554 (12933)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.