Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 43¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 2

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$50.6K

Combined PnL

-$104.56

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 42.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.6K

Total Shares65,000

Combined PnL-$324.98

No7 traders

Total Value$23.0K

Total Shares38,775

Combined PnL+$220.41

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$17.2K	$17.0K	-$200	58% 14-10 (24)
FR fraagenCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$25.0K	$10.6K	-$124.98	44% 62-79 (141)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 57¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$76.24	49% 13140-13787 (26927)
CA Cannae	Noavg 57¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$58.3	53% 16183-14351 (30534)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 57¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$39.24	72% 6881-2676 (9557)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$15	53% 5719-5050 (10769)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 57.1¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	+$31.44	58% 42958-31249 (74207)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$82.52	$82.51	-$0	56% 14353-11124 (25477)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 57¢	$22.8	$23	+$0.2	50% 34037-33623 (67660)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Yes

Invested

$17,200

Value

$17.0K

PnL

-$200

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

fraagenCTR

Yes

Invested

$25,000

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$124.98

Record

44%

62-79 (141)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$8,589.66

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$76.24

Record

49%

13140-13787 (26927)

Cannae

Invested

$6,749.06

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$58.3

Record

53%

16183-14351 (30534)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$4,473.34

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$39.24

Record

72%

6881-2676 (9557)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5719-5050 (10769)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,481.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$31.44

Record

58%

42958-31249 (74207)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$82.52

Value

$82.51

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

14353-11124 (25477)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

$23

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

34037-33623 (67660)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.