Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$116.85

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,311

Combined PnL+$137.22

Under5 traders

Total Value$101.18

Total Shares3,601

Combined PnL-$254.07

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 85¢	$919.7	$1.0K	+$129.84	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 13.5¢	$6.3K	$247.09	-$667.88	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Under leg	Underavg 13.5¢	$835.07	$154.41	-$680.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 84¢	$79.83	$92.67	+$12.83
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 95¢	$194.4	$189.54	+$4.86	80% 5611-1432 (7043)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 13.4¢	$2.2K	$59.37	-$205.95	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 14.5¢	$29.5	$29.32	-$0.18	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 83¢	$22.84	$22.15	+$3.2	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 85¢	$30	$12.2	-$0.68	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$32.5	$7.5	-$25	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
tradecraftCTR	Underavg 13.3¢	$150	$3.75	-$16.25	51% 6679-6369 (13048)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$49.56	$1.24	-$6.69	48% 2032-2230 (4262)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$919.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$129.84

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,271.61

Value

$247.09

PnL

-$667.88

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Under$835.0713.5¢-$680.71

Over$79.8384¢+$12.83

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$194.4

Value

$189.54

PnL

+$4.86

Record

80%

5611-1432 (7043)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$2,166

Value

$59.37

PnL

-$205.95

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$29.5

Value

$29.32

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$22.84

Value

$22.15

PnL

+$3.2

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$0.68

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.5

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$25

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

tradecraftCTR

Under

Invested

$150

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$16.25

Record

51%

6679-6369 (13048)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.56

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$6.69

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.