Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 2 Aston Villa FC?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$2.0K
$41.05
95.8¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $844.89 | $819.12 | +$12.25 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.9¢ | $558.15 | $378.8 | +$0.49 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.2¢ | $411.02 | $266.07 | +$1.78 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.2¢ | $413.1 | $260.12 | -$0.03 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $1.3K | $215.25 | +$7.18 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $27.39 | $46.5 | +$19.11 | 25% 1311-3950 (5261) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $25.66 | $24.88 | +$0.17 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $21.05 | $20.41 | +$0.14 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $10.35 | $0.32 | -$0.04 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
RN1Invested
$844.89
Value
$819.12
PnL
+$12.25
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$558.15
Value
$378.8
PnL
+$0.49
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$411.02
Value
$266.07
PnL
+$1.78
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Invested
$413.1
Value
$260.12
PnL
-$0.03
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
Invested
$1,271.88
Value
$215.25
PnL
+$7.18
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$27.39
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$19.11
Record
25%
1311-3950 (5261)
Invested
$25.66
Value
$24.88
PnL
+$0.17
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$21.05
Value
$20.41
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$0.04
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.