Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 5.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Sep 5

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sat, Sep 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 97.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,042

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$88.19

Total Shares3,332

Combined PnL-$444.57

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 99¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	+$3.0K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Overavg 15.6¢	$483.08	$77.23	-$463.39	35% 349-660 (1009)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 84.6¢	$23.55	$19.9	+$0.95	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 12.5¢	$705.44	$9.95	+$18.66	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$0.84	$1	+$0.16	42% 8192-11384 (19576)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,016.66

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

shaillakhaniCTR

Over

Invested

$483.08

Value

$77.23

PnL

-$463.39

Record

35%

349-660 (1009)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$23.55

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$0.95

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$705.44

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$18.66

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.84

Value

PnL

+$0.16

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.