Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 92¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$446.35

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 91.5¢

+34% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,224

Combined PnL+$488.72

Over5 traders

Total Value$161.01

Total Shares823

Combined PnL-$42.37

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 73.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$138.65	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.9¢	$684.38	$810.66	+$126.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.7¢	$497.67	$232.73	-$264.94
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 65.6¢	$741.35	$1.0K	+$263.88	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 71¢	$778.7	$1.0K	+$224.84	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
pkmgoh92CTR	Overavg 24¢	$100	$102.08	+$2.08	45% 509-629 (1138)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$92.38	$48.41	-$43.97	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 25.7¢	$9.66	$9.2	-$0.46	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$1.04	$1	-$0.04	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$0.3	$0.32	+$0.02	47% 4570-5075 (9645)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,182.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$138.65

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

Both legs:

Under$684.3873.9¢+$126.29

Over$497.6726.7¢-$264.94

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$741.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$263.88

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$778.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$224.84

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

pkmgoh92CTR

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$102.08

PnL

+$2.08

Record

45%

509-629 (1138)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.38

Value

$48.41

PnL

-$43.97

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

4570-5075 (9645)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.