Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 2 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 48¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 31

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

-$17.22

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares20,090

Combined PnL-$99.55

Under10 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares16,475

Combined PnL+$82.33

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR fraagenCTR	Overavg 48¢	$9.6K	$9.5K	-$100	46% 54-63 (117)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 52¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$22.67	45% 670-828 (1498)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$16.5	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.03	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10	53% 5577-4939 (10516)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.72	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 52¢	$641.94	$648.11	+$6.17	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52¢	$483.51	$488.16	+$4.65	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
RJ RJW1CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$37.96	$38.42	+$0.45	43% 99-132 (231)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 52¢	$31.72	$32.03	+$0.3	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52.1¢	$30.73	$30.98	+$0.25	57% 13613-10430 (24043)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.63	+$0.02	47% 2270-2553 (4823)

fraagenCTR

Over

Invested

$9,600

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$100

Record

46%

54-63 (117)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$2,357.68

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$22.67

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,829.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.5

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$1,251.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.03

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5577-4939 (10516)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,011

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.72

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$641.94

Value

$648.11

PnL

+$6.17

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$483.51

Value

$488.16

PnL

+$4.65

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

RJW1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.96

Value

$38.42

PnL

+$0.45

Record

43%

99-132 (231)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.72

Value

$32.03

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$30.73

Value

$30.98

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

13613-10430 (24043)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2270-2553 (4823)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.