Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 69¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 22%
$11.5K
-$344.85
69¢ → 68.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Mastermoney | Overavg 69¢ | $10.0K | $9.6K | -$440.1 | 46% 204-239 (443) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 31¢ | $876.01 | $890.14 | +$14.13 | 53% 15940-14117 (30057) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 31¢ | $724 | $794.06 | +$70.06 | 52% 4728-4448 (9176) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $69.65 | $67.6 | -$2.05 | 50% 25053-24786 (49839) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $46.45 | $50.95 | +$4.5 | 50% 24916-24612 (49528) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $35.34 | $38.76 | +$3.42 | 58% 28639-21134 (49773) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $28.83 | $31.62 | +$2.79 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.1¢ | $24.05 | $26.3 | +$2.25 | 57% 13766-10533 (24299) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $1.7 | +$0.15 | 48% 2366-2607 (4973) |
Invested
$9,997.34
Value
$9.6K
PnL
-$440.1
Record
46%
204-239 (443)
Invested
$876.01
Value
$890.14
PnL
+$14.13
Record
53%
15940-14117 (30057)
Invested
$724
Value
$794.06
PnL
+$70.06
Record
52%
4728-4448 (9176)
Invested
$69.65
Value
$67.6
PnL
-$2.05
Record
50%
25053-24786 (49839)
Invested
$46.45
Value
$50.95
PnL
+$4.5
Record
50%
24916-24612 (49528)
Invested
$35.34
Value
$38.76
PnL
+$3.42
Record
58%
28639-21134 (49773)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$28.83
Value
$31.62
PnL
+$2.79
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
Invested
$24.05
Value
$26.3
PnL
+$2.25
Record
57%
13766-10533 (24299)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
2366-2607 (4973)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.