Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 85¢ · $91K held · ended Oct 31

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$91.1K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 84.8¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$83.5K

Total Shares87,539

Combined PnL-$375.5

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares78,041

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 96¢	$80.2K	$79.8K	-$375.83	95% 58-3 (61)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 5.7¢	$2.6K	$4.4K	+$1.8K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
fxwd12345	Overavg 94.1¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$1.67	69% 1503-682 (2185)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$153.2	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 7.7¢	$431.41	$651.82	+$220.42	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 88.5¢	$483.87	$485.87	+$2	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 10.7¢	$441.06	$460.79	+$19.73	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
└ Under leg	Underavg 10.7¢	$339.58	$360.05	+$20.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 89.3¢	$101.48	$100.75	-$0.74
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 10.4¢	$159.92	$179.65	+$19.73	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 14.3¢	$154.92	$162.17	+$7.25	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 4¢	$54.94	$143.54	+$88.6	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
CA Cannae	Overavg 84¢	$118.42	$118.42	+$0	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$10.67	$11.49	+$0.82	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$11.75	$7.44	-$1.8	57% 13805-10579 (24384)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$80,177.86

Value

$79.8K

PnL

-$375.83

Record

95%

58-3 (61)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,618.85

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$3,136.34

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$1.67

Record

69%

1503-682 (2185)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$1,361.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$153.2

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$431.41

Value

$651.82

PnL

+$220.42

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$483.87

Value

$485.87

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$441.06

Value

$460.79

PnL

+$19.73

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Both legs:

Under$339.5810.7¢+$20.47

Over$101.4889.3¢-$0.74

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$159.92

Value

$179.65

PnL

+$19.73

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$154.92

Value

$162.17

PnL

+$7.25

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$54.94

Value

$143.54

PnL

+$88.6

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$118.42

Value

$118.42

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.67

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$0.82

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.75

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$1.8

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

84.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.