Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$2.7K
$-2.5K
3.5¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 96¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$155.82 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
 NooseracCTR | Underavg 3.6¢ | $115.61 | $120.42 | +$4.82 | 52% 5777-5366 (11143) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 96.5¢ | $94.57 | $97.95 | +$3.38 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 3.5¢ | $2.7K | $38.78 | $-2.7K | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 95.4¢ | $41.21 | $37.74 | +$1.54 | 57% 13805-10579 (24384) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $9.9 | $9.51 | -$0.39 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
Invested
$2,254
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$155.82
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
NooseracCTRInvested
$115.61
Value
$120.42
PnL
+$4.82
Record
52%
5777-5366 (11143)
Invested
$94.57
Value
$97.95
PnL
+$3.38
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$2,712.16
Value
$38.78
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$41.21
Value
$37.74
PnL
+$1.54
Record
57%
13805-10579 (24384)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.51
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.