Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 66¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 66¢

+54% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares11,393

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,485

Combined PnL-$571.83

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 41.3¢	$3.6K	$5.7K	+$2.1K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$413.34	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$451.06	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
HRTrading	Underavg 51.9¢	$99.08	$125.19	+$26.11	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 59¢	$177	$102	-$75	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Underavg 38¢	$33.56	$58.29	+$24.73	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 61.8¢	$101.73	$55.96	-$45.77	65% 1708-928 (2636)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 35.8¢	$27.19	$41.71	+$18.83	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$22.17	$27.44	+$5.27	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,577.17

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,163.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$413.34

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$1,495.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$451.06

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$99.08

Value

$125.19

PnL

+$26.11

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$177

Value

$102

PnL

-$75

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Under

Invested

$33.56

Value

$58.29

PnL

+$24.73

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$101.73

Value

$55.96

PnL

-$45.77

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$27.19

Value

$41.71

PnL

+$18.83

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$22.17

Value

$27.44

PnL

+$5.27

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.