Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Manchester City FC, while the market favors Brighton & Hove Albion FC (66%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester City FC (67%) · Manchester City FC at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Manchester City FC
3
Manchester City FC 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$22.2
35.4¢ → 34¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralManchester City FC at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Brighton & Hove Albion FC 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Manchester City FCavg 35¢ | $364 | $353.6 | -$10.4 | 45% 676-832 (1508) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 66¢ | $538.15 | $351.65 | +$2.5 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
| └ Brighton & Hove Albion FC leg | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 66¢ | $245.52 | $245.52 | -$1.86 | |
| └ Manchester City FC leg | Manchester City FCavg 35¢ | $101.77 | $106.13 | +$4.36 | |
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR | Manchester City FCavg 36¢ | $212.4 | $200.6 | -$11.8 | 51% 222-216 (438) |
CA Cannae | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 66¢ | $115.95 | $115.95 | -$0 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
Invested
$364
Value
$353.6
PnL
-$10.4
Record
45%
676-832 (1508)
Invested
$538.15
Value
$351.65
PnL
+$2.5
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Both legs:
Invested
$212.4
Value
$200.6
PnL
-$11.8
Record
51%
222-216 (438)
Invested
$115.95
Value
$115.95
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.