Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester City FC (40%) · Manchester City FC at 93¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Manchester City FC
5
Manchester City FC 40%
$8.9K
-$33.66
93¢ → 92.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralManchester City FC at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Manchester City FCavg 93¢ | $8.8K | $8.7K | -$47.17 | 53% 2063-1861 (3924) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 7¢ | $86.98 | $93.19 | +$6.21 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 7¢ | $64.82 | $69.45 | +$4.63 | 53% 15855-14037 (29892) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 7¢ | $27.44 | $29.4 | +$1.96 | 50% 33056-32626 (65682) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Manchester City FCavg 91.5¢ | $55.3 | $26.78 | +$0.71 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
Invested
$8,773.92
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$47.17
Record
53%
2063-1861 (3924)
Invested
$86.98
Value
$93.19
PnL
+$6.21
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
Invested
$64.82
Value
$69.45
PnL
+$4.63
Record
53%
15855-14037 (29892)
Invested
$27.44
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$1.96
Record
50%
33056-32626 (65682)
Invested
$55.3
Value
$26.78
PnL
+$0.71
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.