Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
$5.45
58.3¢ → 60¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $1.3K | $853.02 | +$34.67 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57¢ | $508.6 | $535.37 | +$22.31 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.6¢ | $322.52 | $317.65 | +$12.36 | |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 57.8¢ | $426.98 | $435.85 | +$13.11 | 53% 15855-14038 (29893) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57.8¢ | $310.93 | $322.63 | +$11.7 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $116.05 | $113.22 | +$1.42 | |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 58¢ | $185.61 | $188.81 | +$4.8 | 65% 1692-913 (2605) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $75.79 | $76.44 | +$0.65 | 38% 365-593 (958) |
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$1,341.07
Value
$853.02
PnL
+$34.67
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Both legs:
Invested
$426.98
Value
$435.85
PnL
+$13.11
Record
53%
15855-14038 (29893)
Both legs:
Invested
$185.61
Value
$188.81
PnL
+$4.8
Record
65%
1692-913 (2605)
Invested
$75.79
Value
$76.44
PnL
+$0.65
Record
38%
365-593 (958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.