Manchester City FC leading at halftime?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$397.2

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,356

Combined PnL+$171.1

Yes2 traders

Total Value$874.72

Total Shares3,242

Combined PnL+$226.09

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 94.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$77.69	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$602.96	$874.11	+$271.15	58% 2161-1596 (3757)
RN1	Noavg 95.9¢	$732.74	$756.35	+$23.6	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 89.5¢	$538.38	$601	+$62.62	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56¢	$239.68	$241.82	+$2.14	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
TO torta.tech<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$38.85	$35.79	-$3.06	63% 8134-4874 (13008)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 67¢	$32.25	$32.97	+$0.72	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 67¢	$21.9	$29.27	+$7.37	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.55	$2.57	+$0.02	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$45.67	$0.62	-$45.05	50% 25098-24836 (49934)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,346.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$77.69

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

NordhavenCapCTR

Yes

Invested

$602.96

Value

$874.11

PnL

+$271.15

Record

58%

2161-1596 (3757)

RN1

Invested

$732.74

Value

$756.35

PnL

+$23.6

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

SnakeBall

Invested

$538.38

Value

$601

PnL

+$62.62

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$239.68

Value

$241.82

PnL

+$2.14

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

torta.tech<$100

Invested

$38.85

Value

$35.79

PnL

-$3.06

Record

63%

8134-4874 (13008)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$32.25

Value

$32.97

PnL

+$0.72

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$21.9

Value

$29.27

PnL

+$7.37

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.67

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$45.05

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.