Brighton & Hove Albion FC leading at halftime?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$745.02

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,022

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,537

Combined PnL-$643.83

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 71.8¢	$3.3K	$4.6K	+$1.3K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Noavg 72.9¢	$883.51	$969.33	+$85.82	58% 2161-1596 (3757)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 64.3¢	$195.31	$303.73	+$108.42	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Noavg 80¢	$160	$158	-$2	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 23¢	$138.41	$134.62	-$3.79	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.1¢	$32	$102.3	+$70.3
└ No leg	Noavg 23¢	$106.41	$32.32	-$74.09
RN1<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$75.75	$84.3	+$8.55	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 80¢	$41.6	$41.08	-$0.52	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$49.45	$36.58	-$12.87	51% 476-459 (935)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$3.12	$5.98	+$2.86	47% 4570-5075 (9645)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 33.6¢	$643.42	$3.72	-$639.7	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$77.23	$2.67	-$74.56	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.49	$0.51	+$0.02	57% 13805-10579 (24384)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$3,309.69

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

NordhavenCapCTR

Invested

$883.51

Value

$969.33

PnL

+$85.82

Record

58%

2161-1596 (3757)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$195.31

Value

$303.73

PnL

+$108.42

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Invested

$160

Value

$158

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$138.41

Value

$134.62

PnL

-$3.79

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Both legs:

Invested

$75.75

Value

$84.3

PnL

+$8.55

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41.6

Value

$41.08

PnL

-$0.52

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Invested

$49.45

Value

$36.58

PnL

-$12.87

Record

51%

476-459 (935)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.12

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$2.86

Record

47%

4570-5075 (9645)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$643.42

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$639.7

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$77.23

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$74.56

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.