Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Over81¢Under19¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$91.73

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,894

Combined PnL-$179.96

Under4 traders

Total Value$455.95

Total Shares2,026

Combined PnL+$88.22

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Mastermoney	Overavg 81.2¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$179.96	46% 204-239 (443)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 18¢	$319.47	$399.34	+$79.87	59% 10106-7093 (17199)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$26.41	$31.28	+$4.87	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 18.9¢	$11.84	$14.08	+$2.24	57% 13766-10533 (24299)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$10	$11.25	+$1.25	59% 45710-32050 (77760)

Mastermoney

Over

Invested

$3,972.63

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$179.96

Record

46%

204-239 (443)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$319.47

Value

$399.34

PnL

+$79.87

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.41

Value

$31.28

PnL

+$4.87

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.84

Value

$14.08

PnL

+$2.24

Record

57%

13766-10533 (24299)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.