Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 94¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$6.7K
-$26.82
92.5¢ → 94¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 92.6¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$33.89 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 92.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$46.98 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 92.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$51.34 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $131.45 | $144.64 | +$13.19 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $79.98 | $76.54 | -$3.44 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $34.87 | $36.24 | +$1.37 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $20.93 | $21.16 | +$0.23 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $41.25 | $7.23 | +$0.08 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
Invested
$2,948.39
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$33.89
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$1,962.4
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$46.98
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$1,508.02
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$51.34
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
RN1CTRInvested
$131.45
Value
$144.64
PnL
+$13.19
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$79.98
Value
$76.54
PnL
-$3.44
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$34.87
Value
$36.24
PnL
+$1.37
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.93
Value
$21.16
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$41.25
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.