Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$2.9K
-$25.61
86.9¢ → 88¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 84.1¢ | $822.58 | $831.54 | +$8.97 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 89¢ | $797.63 | $788.66 | -$8.96 | 70% 3149-1361 (4510) |
 RN1 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $798.06 | $779.43 | -$18.63 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 89¢ | $233.39 | $230.77 | +$1.31 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 84.1¢ | $157.32 | $153.42 | -$3.9 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $86.41 | $82.01 | -$4.4 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
Invested
$822.58
Value
$831.54
PnL
+$8.97
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$797.63
Value
$788.66
PnL
-$8.96
Record
70%
3149-1361 (4510)
RN1Invested
$798.06
Value
$779.43
PnL
-$18.63
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
VeryLucky888Invested
$233.39
Value
$230.77
PnL
+$1.31
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$157.32
Value
$153.42
PnL
-$3.9
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$86.41
Value
$82.01
PnL
-$4.4
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.