Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 91¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$6.2K
$229.81
95.6¢ → 91.2¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$44.14 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$75.21 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $613.27 | $966.62 | +$353.35 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $26.06 | $22.28 | -$3.78 | 57% 13805-10579 (24384) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $8.05 | $7.91 | -$0.14 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $1.09 | $1.1 | +$0.01 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $1.01 | $0.72 | -$0.29 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
RN1Invested
$2,885.82
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$44.14
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$2,408.06
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$75.21
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$613.27
Value
$966.62
PnL
+$353.35
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$26.06
Value
$22.28
PnL
-$3.78
Record
57%
13805-10579 (24384)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.05
Value
$7.91
PnL
-$0.14
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$0.29
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.