Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$10.9K
$90.94
91.7¢ → 96.2¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | -$161.66 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $3.2K | $4.9K | +$1.7K | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $1.3K | $3.0K | +$1.7K | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$9.37 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 88.3¢ | $379.52 | $383.43 | +$3.91 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $82.3 | $334.58 | +$252.28 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $66.03 | $63.03 | -$3 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $15.32 | $14.54 | -$0.77 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.08 | $1.26 | +$0.18 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
RN1Invested
$5,322.56
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$161.66
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$3,157.73
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Both legs:
Invested
$379.52
Value
$383.43
PnL
+$3.91
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$82.3
Value
$334.58
PnL
+$252.28
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$66.03
Value
$63.03
PnL
-$3
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$15.32
Value
$14.54
PnL
-$0.77
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.26
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.