Will Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.1K
$0.96
78¢ → 77.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Noavg 78¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0 | 52% 4731-4449 (9180) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 78¢ | $173.73 | $384.15 | +$2.46 | 74% 6670-2388 (9058) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $58.62 | $55.95 | -$1.33 | 53% 15944-14125 (30069) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $12.27 | $27.86 | -$0.02 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $23.7 | $23.4 | -$0.15 | 48% 2376-2612 (4988) |
Invested
$2,575.38
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4731-4449 (9180)
Invested
$173.73
Value
$384.15
PnL
+$2.46
Record
74%
6670-2388 (9058)
Invested
$58.62
Value
$55.95
PnL
-$1.33
Record
53%
15944-14125 (30069)
Invested
$12.27
Value
$27.86
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
Invested
$23.7
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
2376-2612 (4988)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.