Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (39%) · Yes at 74¢ · $42K held · ended Oct 31

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 39%

Total Value

$42.4K

Combined PnL

$413.03

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 74¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$30.2K

Total Shares44,294

Combined PnL-$191.84

No11 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares45,995

Combined PnL+$604.87

Yes — 39%No — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHogg	Yesavg 65¢	$12.3K	$12.3K	-$95	51% 214-204 (418)
BE beautifulobsession	Yesavg 64.9¢	$10.0K	$9.8K	-$209.62	67% 80-39 (119)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 19.5¢	$5.7K	$6.1K	+$435.17	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
MA madkkee	Yesavg 86¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$136.65	66% 1038-529 (1567)
RN1	Yesavg 83.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$12.64	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 35¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$36.69	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 35¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$83.18	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 64.5¢	$945.28	$945.21	-$0.07	65% 1708-928 (2636)
TO tomb2456CTR	Noavg 35¢	$874.97	$912.47	+$37.5	50% 292-288 (580)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 35¢	$280	$292	+$12	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 83.8¢	$178.31	$167.02	-$11.29	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$72.8	$52	-$20.8	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$39.09	$44.13	+$5.67	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 12.1¢	$18.68	$40.18	+$21.5	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 34.6¢	$37.61	$18.59	-$6.69	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Noavg 36.3¢	$11.63	$11.68	+$0.05	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$7.25	$7.39	+$0.14	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 18.5¢	$4.44	$5.04	+$0.6	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

DaBossHogg

Yes

Invested

$12,349.99

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$95

Record

51%

214-204 (418)

beautifulobsession

Yes

Invested

$10,028.42

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$209.62

Record

67%

80-39 (119)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$5,708.3

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$435.17

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

madkkee

Yes

Invested

$3,917.3

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$136.65

Record

66%

1038-529 (1567)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$3,009.63

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$12.64

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$2,568.22

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$36.69

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$1,940.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$83.18

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$945.28

Value

$945.21

PnL

-$0.07

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

tomb2456CTR

Invested

$874.97

Value

$912.47

PnL

+$37.5

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$280

Value

$292

PnL

+$12

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$178.31

Value

$167.02

PnL

-$11.29

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$72.8

Value

$52

PnL

-$20.8

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Invested

$39.09

Value

$44.13

PnL

+$5.67

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$18.68

Value

$40.18

PnL

+$21.5

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$37.61

Value

$18.59

PnL

-$6.69

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Invested

$11.63

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.