Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$0.39

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 78.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,313

Combined PnL-$2.81

Yes4 traders

Total Value$270.67

Total Shares1,301

Combined PnL+$3.2

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 79¢	$487.41	$484.32	-$3.08	65% 1702-922 (2624)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78.5¢	$491.73	$481.34	+$0.24	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$341.65	$347.88	+$6.23	45% 670-828 (1498)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$181.98	$180.83	-$1.15
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.5¢	$159.67	$167.05	+$7.39
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$86.17	$88.44	+$2.27	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$72.72	$71.07	-$1.65	53% 719-639 (1358)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$64.39	$65.92	+$1.53	51% 5979-5671 (11650)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$44.19	$45.24	+$1.05	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 80¢	$35.01	$34.4	+$0.24	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 79¢	$31.6	$31.4	-$0.2	58% 28421-20980 (49401)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$487.41

Value

$484.32

PnL

-$3.08

Record

65%

1702-922 (2624)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$491.73

Value

$481.34

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$341.65

Value

$347.88

PnL

+$6.23

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

Both legs:

No$181.9879¢-$1.15

Yes$159.6720.5¢+$7.39

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.17

Value

$88.44

PnL

+$2.27

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.72

Value

$71.07

PnL

-$1.65

Record

53%

719-639 (1358)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.39

Value

$65.92

PnL

+$1.53

Record

51%

5979-5671 (11650)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.19

Value

$45.24

PnL

+$1.05

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$35.01

Value

$34.4

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.6

Value

$31.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.