Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$18.17

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,991

Combined PnL+$58.66

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.37

Total Shares2,736

Combined PnL-$76.83

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 97.1¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$75.47	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
Socialista	Underavg 94¢	$282	$285	-$3	63% 2726-1612 (4338)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 94.9¢	$221.87	$207.53	-$14.35	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 94¢	$8.47	$9.01	+$0.54	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2.6¢	$62.78	$1.22	-$61.55	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$4.68	$0.09	-$4.59	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 9.9¢	$10.49	$0.05	-$9.44	58% 2242-1654 (3896)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$1.25	$0.01	-$1.24	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,398.02

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$75.47

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Socialista

Under

Invested

$282

Value

$285

PnL

-$3

Record

63%

2726-1612 (4338)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$221.87

Value

$207.53

PnL

-$14.35

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$8.47

Value

$9.01

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.78

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$61.55

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.68

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$4.59

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.49

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.44

Record

58%

2242-1654 (3896)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.24

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.