Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 78¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Over78¢Under22¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 14%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$22.86

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,541

Combined PnL+$13.78

Under6 traders

Total Value$903.52

Total Shares4,085

Combined PnL+$9.08

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 77.6¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$39.5	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77.6¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$2.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 21¢	$593	$635.36	+$42.36
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 78¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$13.78	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 22.2¢	$581.02	$575.66	-$5.35	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 21¢	$181.23	$194.18	+$12.95	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 21.7¢	$107.59	$109.12	+$1.53	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 22.5¢	$19.07	$19.07	-$0	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$3.3	$3.37	+$0.07	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 23.7¢	$2.24	$2.12	-$0.12	49% 13022-13588 (26610)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,637.29

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$39.5

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Over$2,044.2977.6¢-$2.86

Under$59321¢+$42.36

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$1,980.51

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$13.78

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$581.02

Value

$575.66

PnL

-$5.35

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$181.23

Value

$194.18

PnL

+$12.95

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$107.59

Value

$109.12

PnL

+$1.53

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.07

Value

$19.07

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.