Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$580.97

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares6,289

Combined PnL-$12.46

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares43,114

Combined PnL-$568.51

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cbs710	Overavg 94¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$21.27	75% 108-36 (144)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 93¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$8.81	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Underavg 6¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$166.67	56% 86-68 (154)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 6¢	$733.37	$318.98	-$414.39	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 6¢	$149.18	$149.18	+$12.43	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Overavg 93¢	$11.27	$11.27	+$0	76% 11357-3525 (14882)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$1.05	$1.14	+$0.09	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.32	$0.35	+$0.03	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

Cbs710

Over

Invested

$4,255.32

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$21.27

Record

75%

108-36 (144)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,955.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$8.81

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$166.67

Record

56%

86-68 (154)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$733.37

Value

$318.98

PnL

-$414.39

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$149.18

Value

$149.18

PnL

+$12.43

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Over

Invested

$11.27

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11357-3525 (14882)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.