Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Liverpool FC O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 92¢ · $772 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$772.01
-$66.93
84.3¢ → 92¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 84¢ | $577.25 | $610.45 | +$33.19 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 Socialista | Underavg 85¢ | $255 | $154.5 | -$100.5 | 63% 2725-1611 (4336) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.5 | +$0.35 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $3.79 | $1.58 | +$0.1 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $1.05 | $0.98 | -$0.07 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$577.25
Value
$610.45
PnL
+$33.19
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
SocialistaInvested
$255
Value
$154.5
PnL
-$100.5
Record
63%
2725-1611 (4336)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0.35
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.