Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Liverpool FC O/U 0.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

33.7¢ → 100¢

+197% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,297

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over5 traders

Total Value$427.96

Total Shares814

Combined PnL-$144.03

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 32.3¢	$682.99	$1.9K	+$1.2K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 74¢	$422.55	$394	+$2.86	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 36¢	$84.8	$202.37	+$117.57	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 53.1¢	$392.1	$177.53	-$214.56	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.1¢	$365.38	$96.42	-$268.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.3¢	$26.72	$81.11	+$54.4
HRTrading	Underavg 49.2¢	$65.62	$114.6	+$48.97	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$86.52	$15.94	-$70.58	42% 2259-3078 (5337)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 74¢	$74	$14	-$60	55% 8417-6766 (15183)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 74¢	$15.44	$2.92	-$12.52	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 62¢	$4.88	$1.1	-$3.78	50% 19465-19831 (39296)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$682.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$422.55

Value

$394

PnL

+$2.86

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$84.8

Value

$202.37

PnL

+$117.57

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$392.1

Value

$177.53

PnL

-$214.56

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Both legs:

Over$365.3853.1¢-$268.96

Under$26.7228.3¢+$54.4

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$65.62

Value

$114.6

PnL

+$48.97

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86.52

Value

$15.94

PnL

-$70.58

Record

42%

2259-3078 (5337)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74

Value

$14

PnL

-$60

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.44

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$12.52

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.88

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$3.78

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.