Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Liverpool FC, while the market favors Arsenal FC (85%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Liverpool FC (50%) · Liverpool FC at 15¢ · $529 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Liverpool FC
4
Liverpool FC 50%
$529.12
$25.68
14¢ → 15¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLiverpool FC at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Arsenal FC 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Liverpool FCavg 14¢ | $350 | $374.99 | +$25 | 47% 100-113 (213) |
CA Cannae | Arsenal FCavg 85¢ | $107.67 | $107.67 | +$0.63 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 86¢ | $42.57 | $42.07 | -$0.25 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Liverpool FCavg 14¢ | $4.09 | $4.38 | +$0.29 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$350
Value
$374.99
PnL
+$25
Record
47%
100-113 (213)
Invested
$107.67
Value
$107.67
PnL
+$0.63
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$42.57
Value
$42.07
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$0.29
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.