Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Liverpool FC (56%) · Liverpool FC at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Arsenal FC<1¢Liverpool FC>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liverpool FC

Consensus Traders

Liverpool FC 56%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$982.12

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Arsenal FC0%

Liverpool FC100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liverpool FC5 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares9,520

Combined PnL-$285.14

Arsenal FC4 traders

Total Value$203.95

Total Shares12,905

Combined PnL-$696.98

Liverpool FC — 56%Arsenal FC — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arsenal FC) and the top 1000 (6 on Liverpool FC) disagree here.

whaleArsenal FC 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrLiverpool FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedArsenal FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liverpool FC 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Liverpool FCavg 93¢	$8.7K	$8.4K	-$279.18	65% 1759-964 (2723)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Arsenal FCavg 6.9¢	$101.79	$176.61	+$74.82	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
FO foooool<$100	Liverpool FCavg 92¢	$100	$95.65	-$4.35	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Liverpool FCavg 93¢	$42.78	$41.4	-$0.23	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Liverpool FCavg 89.9¢	$40.51	$36.08	+$0.06	58% 2242-1654 (3896)
HRTrading<$100	Liverpool FCavg 95¢	$19.57	$18.13	-$1.44	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Arsenal FCavg 6.9¢	$791.9	$15.66	-$776.23	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
RN1CTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 7¢	$3.76	$6.45	+$2.69	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 8¢	$3.48	$5.22	+$1.74	49% 13032-13607 (26639)

darkumbreon88

Liverpool FC

Invested

$8,654.58

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$279.18

Record

65%

1759-964 (2723)

SnakeBallCTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$101.79

Value

$176.61

PnL

+$74.82

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

foooool<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$100

Value

$95.65

PnL

-$4.35

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$42.78

Value

$41.4

PnL

-$0.23

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

NordhavenCap<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$40.51

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

2242-1654 (3896)

HRTrading<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$19.57

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

UpTheBluesCTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$791.9

Value

$15.66

PnL

-$776.23

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

RN1CTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$3.76

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$2.69

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$3.48

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$1.74

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arsenal FC) and the top 1000 (6 on Liverpool FC) disagree here.

whaleArsenal FC 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrLiverpool FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedArsenal FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liverpool FC 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liverpool FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.