Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.0K
$5.06
56.2¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$19.77 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 55¢ | $642.4 | $659.92 | +$17.52 | 49% 1197-1224 (2421) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $486.54 | $486.54 | +$5.66 | 50% 7122-7163 (14285) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $73.17 | $73.92 | +$1.41 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $52.49 | $52.26 | +$0.23 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,713.25
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$19.77
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$642.4
Value
$659.92
PnL
+$17.52
Record
49%
1197-1224 (2421)
Invested
$486.54
Value
$486.54
PnL
+$5.66
Record
50%
7122-7163 (14285)
Invested
$73.17
Value
$73.92
PnL
+$1.41
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Invested
$52.49
Value
$52.26
PnL
+$0.23
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.