Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.2K
$493.81
36.6¢ → 99¢
+171% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $588.17 | $1.0K | +$429.96 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $71.7 | $152.33 | +$80.62 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 88.8¢ | $48.87 | $52.23 | +$3.35 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $22.77 | $2.64 | -$20.13 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$588.17
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$429.96
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
RN1Invested
$71.7
Value
$152.33
PnL
+$80.62
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$48.87
Value
$52.23
PnL
+$3.35
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.77
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$20.13
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.