Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.9K
$12.6
97.2¢ → 96.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$8.22 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $80.68 | $80.68 | +$0 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $36.56 | $36.98 | +$0.42 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $8.47 | $12.44 | +$3.97 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
Invested
$1,808.57
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$8.22
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$80.68
Value
$80.68
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$36.56
Value
$36.98
PnL
+$0.42
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$8.47
Value
$12.44
PnL
+$3.97
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.