Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.6K
-$169.84
98.7¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$4.65 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.5¢ | $640.14 | $482.75 | -$157.39 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $75.43 | $75.58 | +$0.16 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $9.85 | $4.62 | -$5.24 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $6.53 | $3.81 | -$2.72 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
RN1Invested
$2,047.9
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$4.65
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$640.14
Value
$482.75
PnL
-$157.39
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$75.43
Value
$75.58
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$5.24
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$6.53
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$2.72
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.