Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$4.1K
-$37.9
96.5¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 96.5¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$22.04 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $86.23 | $86.69 | +$0.46 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $103.78 | $44.44 | -$59.34 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 61.6¢ | $4.81 | $7.69 | +$2.88 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $7.14 | $4.36 | -$2.78 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $4.66 | $3.52 | -$1.14 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
Invested
$3,934.62
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$22.04
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$86.23
Value
$86.69
PnL
+$0.46
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
RN1CTRInvested
$103.78
Value
$44.44
PnL
-$59.34
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$4.81
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$2.88
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$4.36
PnL
-$2.78
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$4.66
Value
$3.52
PnL
-$1.14
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.