Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.3K
-$91.47
93.2¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93.2¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$35.57 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$66.13 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $344.19 | $149.16 | -$195.04 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $39.96 | $42.79 | +$2.84 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $37.32 | $37.16 | -$0.08 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $29.22 | $28.29 | -$0.93 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $1.17 | $1.22 | +$0.05 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$2,874.07
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$35.57
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$1,066.49
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$66.13
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
RN1CTRInvested
$344.19
Value
$149.16
PnL
-$195.04
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$42.79
PnL
+$2.84
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$37.32
Value
$37.16
PnL
-$0.08
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$29.22
Value
$28.29
PnL
-$0.93
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.