Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$41.68

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,832

Combined PnL+$79.49

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.94

Total Shares1,651

Combined PnL-$121.17

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 94.5¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$78.79	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 92¢	$90.16	$89.18	-$0.98	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 90¢	$16.92	$18.59	+$1.67	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$12.55	$1.93	-$10.61	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.03	$1.16	+$0.13	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$110.53	$0.73	-$109.8	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1	$0.12	-$0.88	49% 13032-13607 (26639)

RN1

Invested

$2,614.11

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$78.79

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$90.16

Value

$89.18

PnL

-$0.98

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$16.92

Value

$18.59

PnL

+$1.67

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.55

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$10.61

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.53

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$109.8

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.88

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.