Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $306 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$305.6
-$0.99
95.5¢ → 95.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.5¢ | $175.51 | $175.1 | -$0.42 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $92.65 | $92.43 | -$0.22 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $28.18 | $28.18 | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $7.25 | $7.52 | -$0.35 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $2.39 | $2.37 | -$0 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$175.51
Value
$175.1
PnL
-$0.42
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$92.65
Value
$92.43
PnL
-$0.22
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$28.18
Value
$28.18
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.52
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$2.39
Value
$2.37
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.