Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.3K
-$118.72
90¢ → 85.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90.2¢ | $767.98 | $728.08 | -$39.9 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $472.79 | $280.33 | -$132.59 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $108.99 | $174.18 | +$65.19 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $42.24 | $42.94 | +$0.7 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $32.99 | $33.18 | +$0.18 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $37.31 | $25.01 | -$12.3 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$767.98
Value
$728.08
PnL
-$39.9
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
VeryLucky888Invested
$472.79
Value
$280.33
PnL
-$132.59
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$108.99
Value
$174.18
PnL
+$65.19
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
RN1<$100Invested
$42.24
Value
$42.94
PnL
+$0.7
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$32.99
Value
$33.18
PnL
+$0.18
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$37.31
Value
$25.01
PnL
-$12.3
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.